The results of a survey on business trends of credit institutions in the third quarter of 2019 were announced by the Department of Forecast and Statistics, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), according to credit institutions’ assessment, the overall risk level of customers in the second quarter of 2019 were basically unchanged compared to the first quarter of 2019.
In June 2019, 94 percent of credit institutions stated that the risks of customers are normal or low.
Meanwhile, it is forecasted that in third quarter of 2019, up to 80 percent of credit institutions expect the overall risk at the stable level. 11.6 percent of credit institutions are concerned that the risk will slightly increase and only 8.4 percent expect to reduce risks.
According to the forecasts for 2019, credit institutions continue to adjust their expectations in a more positive direction compared to the previous period, with 69.5 percent of credit institutions assessing the overall risk of customer groups at stable level, 16, 8 percent of credit institutions forecast the decrease and 13.7 percent are concerned about the rising risk (the previous quarter expects 67.01 percent -14.43 percent -18.56 percent respectively).
The survey results also showed that most credit institutions estimate the interest rate of capital mobilisation and lending to remain stable in the third quarter of 2019 and the whole year of 2019.
Specifically, capital mobilisation of the entire credit system is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019 and 13.47 percent in 2019, higher than the actual increase of 2018 but lower than the expected 16.51 percent of the same period last year, adjusted slightly lower than the expected level of 13.74 percent in the previous survey.
Besides, the deposit structure has a positive movement, the term deposits with more than one year are expected to increase by most credit institutions in the third quarter of 2019 and the whole year of 2019.
Credit balance of the banking system is forecasted to grow by 4.13 percent in Q3/2019 and up 14.33 percent in 2019, higher than the actual increase of 13.88 percent in 2018 but lower than the expected increase of 16.7 percent of the same period in 2018, adjusted slightly lower than the expected average of 14.5 percent recorded in the previous survey.
Accordingly, 98 percent of credit institutions recognised their liquidity at the end of Q2/2019 in a good and normal state for both dong and foreign currencies. In the next quarter and the whole year of 2019, the majority of credit institutions expect the liquidity of the banking system to continue to improve for both dong and foreign currencies.
In particular, the situation of bad debt settlement has positive signals, with 27.4 percent of credit institutions assessing their bad debt to credit outstanding ratio to reduce in Q2/2019 and 26,9 percent expect this ratio to decrease in Q3/2019 (higher than the corresponding rate of 24.3-23.4 percent recorded in the previous survey).
According to credit institutions, the business situation in the second quarter of 2019 improved better than the first quarter of 2019, in which 76 percent said that their business situation was ameliorated, of which 15.6 percent admitted to be sharply ameliorated.
85.4 percent of credit institutions expect business situation to improve in the third quarter of 2019 (higher than the rate of 80.6 percent of the survey in March 2019) and 88.5 percent forecast the overall business situation in 2019 to be improved compared to 2018 (similar to the results of the March 2019 survey), of which 20-27.4 percent expect to be improved significantly.
Notably, according to the survey results, 22 percent of credit institutions said that in June 2019 they were lack of labour necessary for current job demand (lower than the rate of 25.5 percent at the survey in March 2019). It also showed that the lack of labour in the banking industry was being solved.
